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An updated National Blend of Models is now available

Oct 28, 2018. | By: Craig McPheeters

Four new models were added to the LuckGrib server cluster in August 2018, the National Blend of Models

The four models are:

At the time these models were introduced the group responsible were in the final stages of testing the next version of the models, version 3.1. The update is now operational and the LuckGrib versions of the model have been updated to incorporate some of the new weather information that has been made available.

The first three of the models (CONUS, Alaska and Hawaii) are quite similar, while Oceanic is different from the others (these differences are described in the original announcement referenced above.)

Updates to the Blending Process

Many new models have been added to the blend.

The list of model inputs, for version 3.0 of NBM, is:

The update to NBM, version 3.1, has added the following model inputs:

  • ECMWFD (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, deterministic - 0.25 degree)(CONUS, OCONUS) (0000, 1200 UTC runs)
  • ECMWFE (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Ensemble - 1.0 degree)(CONUS, OCONUS) (0000, 1200 UTC runs)
  • NAVGEMD (Navy FNMOC Global deterministic - 0.50 degree For most elements, 1.0 degree for significant wave heights)(CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domain) (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC runs)
  • GDPS (CMCD Environment Canada Global deterministic model (25km) for weather elements other than PoP12/QPF06)
  • RDPS (Canadian Regional deterministic model - 10km) (CONUS and Alaska) (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC runs)
  • REPS (Canadian Regional ensemble model - 15km) (CONUS) (0000 and 1200 UTC runs) (Precipitation products only)
  • HRRR Alaska (High Resolution Rapid Refresh - 3km) (a). 1-18 hours (0300, 0900, 1500, 2100 UTC runs) (b). 1-36 hours (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC runs)
  • HiResWindow ARW Mem2 (3-km High-Resolution Window Forecast System (configured like NSSL WRF) (CONUS and OCONUS)
  • WW3 (0.5 degree WaveWatchIII global deterministic model)
  • WW3 (0.5 degree WaveWatchIII global ensemble model)
  • WW3 (0.16 and 0.06 degree WaveWatchIII high resolution regional models) (CONUS and OCONUS)
  • GLW (2.5km Great Lakes Wave model)

In addition to the new models that are available, there are other improvements as well.
Read the official announcement for more details.

NBM Conus, Alaska, Hawaii

Several new parameters are now available. The CONUS and Alaska models now include:

  • rain (new to Alaska model)
  • snow
  • air temperature at 2m
  • relative humidity

The Hawaii model now includes rain

NBM Oceanic

The NBM Oceanic model was previously updated twice a day (at 00Z and 12Z). The model is now updated six times a day, at: 00Z, 05Z, 07Z, 12Z, 17Z and 19Z

Several new parameters are now available in the Oceanic model:

  • sea level pressure
  • wind gust
  • visibility
  • combined wind wave and swell height

Also, two parameters which were briefly not available (10% and 25% probability wind speeds) are now available again.

I believe the Oceanic version of the NBM is an interesting model for sailors. The model has a large domain, covering most of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, down to 20° south at a 10km resolution.

As discussed in the announcement, NBM Oceanic is a weather forecast model which is able to express the degree of certainty it has in its results. This is a crucial difference between this model and all other models.

A short tutorial is available, describing the NBM Oceanic probabilistic data in some more detail.

Conclusion

This is an excellent update to this interesting suite of models. Thanks to the National Weather Service and the Meteorological Development Laboratory!

Feedback is welcome.

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