GRIB Model

CMC Ensemble

Provider:Environment Canada
Model scope:Global
Update frequency:every 12 hours
Resolution:1.0°, 60.0nm, 111.1km
Model duration:29 forecasts starting at 0 hr, ending at 10 days
Parameters:pressure, wind, rain, temperature, humidity, convection, vertical velocity, 250 mb, 500 mb, 850 mb
GRIB model date:Mon Dec 11 12:00:00 2017 UTC
Download date:Mon Dec 11 18:07:38 2017 UTC
Download delay:6hr 07min

Description

This model is first produced by Environment Canada, and then processed and made available by NOAA to the general public.

This is an ensemble model, and in this case, it is the result of averaging 21 slightly different weather models together. The idea in an ensemble model is that there is instability in many weather systems and that capturing the initial state of the atmosphere for the weather models can not be done perfectly. The ensemble process slightly alters the initial inputs and/or the numerical model in order to generate a range of different results, which are then averaged to create the final result.

Some people feel that an ensemble model is better at longer term forecasts. It is a useful exercise to download both an ensemble model as well as a normal weather model and compare them. If the two forecasts are similar, you may be able to feel more confident in their prediction ability.

For more information on the model, see this link.