CMC Ensemble
| Provider: | Environment Canada |
| Model scope: | Global |
| Update frequency: | every 12 hours |
| Resolution: | 0.5°, 30.0nm, 55.6km |
| Model duration: | 49 forecasts starting at 0 hr, ending at 16 days |
| Parameters: | pressure, wind, rain, temperature, 250 mb, 500 mb, ensemble standard deviation, ensemble control (GDPS) |
| GRIB model date: | Thu Nov 21 00:00:00 2024 UTC |
| Download date: | Thu Nov 21 08:50:39 2024 UTC |
| Download delay: | 8hr 50min |
Note: the Download delay is the amount of time required for the GRIB model to compute its forecast and then for the LuckGrib cluster to download the data and make it available. The LuckGrib delay is generally less than 10 minutes, the remainder of the delay is the model compute time.
Description
This model is first produced by Environment Canada, and then processed and made available by NOAA to the general public.
This is an ensemble model, and in this case, it is the result of averaging 21 slightly different weather models together. The idea in an ensemble model is that there is instability in many weather systems and that capturing the initial state of the atmosphere for the weather models can not be done perfectly. The ensemble process slightly alters the initial inputs and/or the numerical model in order to generate a range of different results. This suite of results can be analyzed to generate the average and standard deviation.
You can download the ensemble mean (average), standard deviation and the control member, which allows you estimate the uncertainty in the forecasts being generated.
There is a tutorial which provides more information on this topic.
For more information on the model, see this link.